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Submergence threatens the archipelago over the next 130 years

La surcote de marée causée par le passage de Fiona en septembre 2022 a entraîné de la submersion dans plusieurs secteurs côtiers des Iles (Photo : CFIM)

Îles de la Madeleine

Sea levels around the Islands could rise by just under one meter by 2100 and more than 1.5 meters by 2150.

These findings come from NASA’s sea level projection tool, updated with data from the 6th IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report, released in 2021.

NASA’s projections are based on five scenarios ranging from a net cessation of carbon emissions in 2050 in the best case scenario to no mitigation at all.

Données : Outil de projection du niveau de la mer de la NASA
Graphique : CFIM

Assuming that emitting countries meet the targets of previous international climate agreements, the expected sea level rise in the Islands would be 0.38 m in 2050, 0.85 m in 2100 and 1.3 m in 2150.

NASA also notes that the effects of melting ice caps are difficult to weight reliably as there is no consensus on this issue in the scientific community.

Taking into account this uncertainty, which is excluded from the main scenarios presented, the most pessimistic projections suggest a sea level rise of up to 5.5 m by 2150.

At the other end of the spectrum, a climate warming limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to temperatures observed at the end of the 19th century would result in a much more modest sea level rise by 2150, estimated at 0.92 m.

It should be noted that the Municipality of the Islands is currently developing a coastal erosion and flooding intervention framework in order to better plan future works.

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